YOUTH AND LEADERSHIP AS THE AXES OF VOTE IN THE POST-PANDEMIC SCENE.
In this paper we answer the question “What explains voting intention in the post-pandemic scenario?” based on a binary logistic model that identifies the determining factors of the Spanish population’s electoral behaviour with respect to the four main national parties, using data from the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas. The analysis shows that, in first place, youth –population aged 18 to 34- is an important variable in explaining a higher probability of voting for Unidas Podemos and a lower probability of voting for PSOE or Partido Popular, while the age factor barely interferes in the vote for Vox. The other variable of great predictive power is leaders’ valuation, both positive towards the leader of the party closest to the voter and negative towards the rest of the political leaders. On the other hand, there are moderate signs of economic voting among potential voters for Unidas Podemos and Vox and a lower probability of female voting for both, especially marked for the ultraconservative party. Ideology remains in a third level, being moderately explanatory only in the case of the vote for PP. In conclusion, youth and leadership are established as the main predictors of the vote in the postpandemic scenario and in the face of a new electoral cycle in 2023.